← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Mar 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 45% | 2.15 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 28% | 3.56 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.58 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| VfL Osnabruck +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Philipp Ziereis · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Guido Burgstaller · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 65' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Bashkim Ajdini · VfL Osnabruck |
| 79' | ⚽ | Marc Heider · VfL Osnabruck |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Bremer Brücke |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 20.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1371.77 | 1450.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.24 | 17.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 23.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.35 | 27.18 |
| state index | -1.44 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |