← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Mar 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 50% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 22% | 4.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.83 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Lukas Gugganig · VfL Osnabruck |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kevin Wolze · VfL Osnabruck |
| 61' | ⚽ | Manuel Schäffler · Nurnberg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ulrich Taffertshofer · VfL Osnabruck |
| 73' | ⚽ | Marc Heider · VfL Osnabruck |
| 81' | 🟨 | Dennis Borkowski · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 256.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1422.76 | 1368.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.38 | -41.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 49.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.42 |
| league points | 27.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 28.43 |
| state index | -0.43 | -1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |