← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Mar 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 47% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 24% | 4.19 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt |
| 27' | ⚽ | Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt |
| 29' | 🟨 | Immanuel Höhn · Darmstadt |
| 30' | 🟨 | Louis Samson · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 55' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Darmstadt |
| 59' | 🟨 | Louis Samson · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 59' | 🟥 | Louis Samson · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 67' | ⚽ | Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt |
| 78' | 🟨 | Victor Pálsson · Darmstadt |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mathias Honsak · Darmstadt |
| coach days | 255.00 | 590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1463.05 | 1469.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.90 | -4.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 28.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 29.22 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |