← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Mon, Mar 8, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| 18' | 🟨 | Stephan Kofi Ambrosius · Hamburger SV |
| 23' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jan Gyamerah · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Niklas Hauptmann · Holstein Kiel |
| 61' | 🟨 | Simon Lorenz · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 250.00 | 554.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1559.98 | 1562.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.69 | 27.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 42.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 27.02 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |