← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Mar 6, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 43% | 2.32 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 29% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hannover +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.92 |
| Under | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Phillipp Ochs · Hannover |
| 44' | 🟨 | Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover |
| 64' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 69' | 🟨 | Niklas Hult · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 583.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1469.32 | 1526.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.01 | 2.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| league points | 32.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.91 | 28.14 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |