← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Feb 27, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 58% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.07 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 61' | 🟨 | Louis Samson · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 3 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 545.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1556.64 | 1475.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.29 | -6.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 4.69 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 29.31 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |