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Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–2 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Feb 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win42%2.28
Hannover win30%3.29
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.2550%1.94
Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf
28'⚽ (pen)Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf
33'🟨Edgar Prib · Fortuna Dusseldorf
37'⚽Florent Muslija · Hannover
38'🟨Florent Muslija · Hannover
40'🟨Florian Hartherz · Fortuna Dusseldorf
45'🟨Florian Hartherz · Fortuna Dusseldorf
45'🟥Florian Hartherz · Fortuna Dusseldorf
52'⚽Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf
76'⚽Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf
79'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots10
3On target5
1Corners4
9Fouls13
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFortuna DusseldorfHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.47
box share (last 5)0.740.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days417.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerkur Spiel-Arena
⚽
Mick Gudra · Hannover
82'🟨Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf
83'🟨Josip Elez · Hannover
90'🟨Mick Gudra · Hannover
478.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.75
elo1501.821489.79
elo momentum (last 5)-38.4219.28
eye test v1-0.370.45
eye trend v1-0.63-0.50
first sub minute (last 10)54.8056.40
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.69
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.71—
league points33.0033.00
league rank6.007.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2073.60
possession avg (last 5)44.8046.00
rest days8.028.79
scorer concentration0.260.26
season ppg1.571.57
skill v1-0.52-0.60
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.006.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.40
state index-0.590.25
sterile dominance v1-0.61-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.300.30
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00