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Bochum 2–0 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Feb 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win62%1.56
Draw24%4.22
Braunschweig win15%6.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig −151%1.89
Bochum −149%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Armel Bella-Kotchap · Bochum
32'⚽Danilo Soares · Bochum
45'🟨Dong-Won Ji · Braunschweig
81'🟨Lasse Schlüter · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots8
6On target2
7Corners2
12Fouls15
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.570.48
cards avg (last 5)3.203.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days532.00471.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.692.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.15
dominance (last 5)0.580.44
elo1566.101388.83
elo momentum (last 5)6.67-13.82
eye test v10.74-0.47
eye trend v10.330.32
first sub minute (last 10)63.4064.60
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.79
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.760.65
league points39.0017.00
league rank4.0017.00
matches since blank8.004.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6067.00
possession avg (last 5)59.6039.40
rest days8.028.02
scorer concentration0.320.22
season ppg1.950.85
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4010.00
skill v10.62-1.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.60
squad age28.3528.69
state index0.42-0.85
sterile dominance v10.53-1.04
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.260.29
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40