← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Feb 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 39% | 2.51 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Philipp Ziereis · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 16' | 🟨 | James Lawrence · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · Nurnberg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Omar Marmoush · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Manuel Schäffler · Nurnberg |
| 77' | ⚽ | Dennis Borkowski · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Igor Matanović · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 21 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 228.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1430.68 | 1432.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.26 | 44.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 25.82 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |