← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Feb 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 22% | 4.49 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Patrick Mainka · Heidenheim |
| 6' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Heidenheim |
| 33' | 🟨 | Steve Breitkreuz · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 36' | 🟨 | Steve Breitkreuz · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 36' | 🟥 | Steve Breitkreuz · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 47' | 🟨 | Norman Theuerkauf · Heidenheim |
| 63' | 🟨 | Oliver Hüsing · Heidenheim |
| 65' | 🟨 | Christian Kühlwetter · Heidenheim |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 89' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 13 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| Louis Samson · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 4914.00 | 562.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1501.92 | 1475.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.31 | -10.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 26.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 12.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 29.27 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |