← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Feb 13, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Regensburg win | 31% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Jan Elvedi · Regensburg |
| 39' | ⚽ | David Otto · Regensburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kevin Danso · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1323.00 | 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1448.07 | 1565.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.20 | -25.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 4.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 26.85 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |