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Greuther Furth 4–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Feb 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win58%1.68
Draw25%3.99
FC Wurzburger Kickers win17%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth −0.7552%1.88
FC Wurzburger Kickers −0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Ridge Munsy · FC Wurzburger Kickers
17'🟨Sascha Burchert · Greuther Furth
28'⚽Dickson Abiama · Greuther Furth
45'🟨Maximilian Bauer · Greuther Furth
50'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
61'🟨Douglas · FC Wurzburger Kickers
75'🟨Anton Stach · Greuther Furth
76'🟨Mitja Lotrič · FC Wurzburger Kickers
80'⚽ (pen)Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
87'⚽Robin Kehr · Greuther Furth
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots14
7On target9
11Corners6
12Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthFC Wurzburger Kickers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.600.67
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
🟨
Daniel Hägele · FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.80
coach days737.00159.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.501.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.620.51
elo1540.211349.26
elo momentum (last 5)12.7321.05
eye test v10.19-0.26
eye trend v1-0.23-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)62.0064.20
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.10
keeper form v10.760.70
league points35.0012.00
league rank4.0018.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4074.00
possession avg (last 5)55.8046.00
rest days8.798.79
scorer concentration0.200.31
season ppg1.840.63
shot diff avg (last 5)5.400.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.20
skill v10.83-0.52
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age25.3228.35
state index0.35-0.34
sterile dominance v10.52-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60