← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Jan 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 21' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 41' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 | Chima Okoroji · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Svante Ingelsson · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 3 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 213.00 | 1400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1581.67 | 1505.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.47 | 8.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 37.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.69 | 2.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 26.66 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.29 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |