← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Wed, Jan 27, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.36 |
| Regensburg win | 30% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jan Elvedi · Regensburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 210.00 | 1306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1443.28 | 1433.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.32 | -25.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.29 | 3.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |