← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Jan 17, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 44% | 2.24 |
| Karlsruhe win | 28% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Philip Heise · Karlsruhe |
| 12' | 🟨 | Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel |
| 19' | 🟨 | Marc Lorenz · Karlsruhe |
| 35' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marco Thiede · Karlsruhe |
| 56' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Karlsruhe |
| 60' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
| 77' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | ⚽ | Robin Bormuth · Karlsruhe |
| 88' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 89' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 504.00 | 351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1531.85 | 1457.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.19 | -6.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 27.15 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |