⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Hannover 2–3 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Jan 16, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win54%1.83
Draw25%3.84
FC St. Pauli 1910 win21%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.7553%1.84
Hannover −0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Rodrigo Zalazar · FC St. Pauli 1910
10'⚽Guido Burgstaller · FC St. Pauli 1910
29'🟨Finn Ole Becker · FC St. Pauli 1910
32'🟨Valmir Sulejmani · Hannover
41'🟨Jaka Bijol · Hannover
45'🟨Marvin Ducksch · Hannover
53'⚽Genki Haraguchi · Hannover
55'⚽Genki Haraguchi · Hannover
69'🟨Marcel Franke · Hannover
79'🟨Timo Hübers · Hannover
87'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots14
7On target9
6Corners3
19Fouls18
6Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.610.74
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHDI-Arena
Jaka Bijol
· Hannover
87'🟥Jaka Bijol · Hannover
90'⚽Igor Matanović · FC St. Pauli 1910
3.60
coach days442.00199.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.45
elo1531.461388.27
elo momentum (last 5)28.81-13.80
eye test v10.44-0.29
eye trend v10.22-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)54.0053.10
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.15
keeper form v10.750.69
league points23.0010.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.0020.00
matches since win0.0013.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)47.4048.80
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg1.530.67
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.4012.40
skill v1-0.87-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.80
squad age27.8125.90
state index0.65-1.23
sterile dominance v1-0.88-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40