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FC St. Pauli 1910 1–1 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Jan 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win53%1.81
Draw24%4.12
FC St. Pauli 1910 win22%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel +0.554%1.81
FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.62
Under41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Rodrigo Zalazar · FC St. Pauli 1910
39'🟨Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel
52'⚽Omar Marmoush · FC St. Pauli 1910
62'⚽Joshua Mees · Holstein Kiel
67'🟨Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots12
5On target3
7Corners5
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Holstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.740.71
cards avg (last 5)3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
1.00
coach days192.00496.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.17
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.842.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.410.58
elo1385.771534.34
elo momentum (last 5)-24.0028.44
eye test v1-0.680.27
eye trend v1-0.27-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)51.7062.00
form points (last 5)2.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.640.77
league points9.0028.00
league rank17.002.00
matches since blank2.0012.00
matches since clean sheet20.001.00
matches since win12.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0062.20
rest days2.775.98
scorer concentration0.210.21
season ppg0.642.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.203.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6013.40
skill v1-0.241.38
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.40
squad age24.7627.93
state index-1.350.67
sterile dominance v10.271.27
threat rate (last 10)0.240.19
threat rate (last 3)0.150.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.60