← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Jan 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 53% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 22% | 4.33 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Zalazar · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 39' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 52' | ⚽ | Omar Marmoush · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Joshua Mees · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | 🟨 | Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 192.00 | 496.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1385.77 | 1534.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.00 | 28.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| league points | 9.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 2.77 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 27.93 |
| state index | -1.35 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |