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Greuther Furth 2–1 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Jan 3, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reichel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win56%1.74
Draw24%4.14
FC St. Pauli 1910 win21%4.66

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth −0.7550%1.93
FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.7550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.52
Under37%2.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Marvin Knoll · FC St. Pauli 1910
24'⚽ (pen)Julian Green · Greuther Furth
27'⚽Håvard Nielsen · Greuther Furth
38'🟨Leart Paqarada · FC St. Pauli 1910
66'🟨Afeez Aremu · FC St. Pauli 1910
79'🟨Paul Seguin · Greuther Furth
80'🟨Sebastian Ohlsson · FC St. Pauli 1910
82'⚽Leon Flach · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
23Shots3
5On target2
13Corners2
13Fouls23
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.45—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.41—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.43—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.64—
cards avg (last 5)0.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
coach days702.00186.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.603.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.623.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.14
dominance (last 5)0.520.49
elo1522.501390.68
elo momentum (last 5)7.54-38.79
eye test v10.30-0.09
eye trend v1-0.63-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)62.1053.50
form points (last 5)9.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.520.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v1—0.62
league points24.008.00
league rank4.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0018.00
matches since win0.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8075.80
possession avg (last 5)56.8051.20
rest days15.0214.00
scorer concentration0.200.25
season ppg1.850.67
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.4014.40
skill v10.74-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
squad age24.0325.38
state index0.16-1.29
sterile dominance v10.80-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.280.29
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40