← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Jan 3, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 60% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.21 |
| Regensburg win | 17% | 5.82 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Hamburger SV −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | David Kinsombi · Hamburger SV |
| 33' | ⚽ | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · Hamburger SV |
| 39' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | 🟨 | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Albion Vrenezi · Regensburg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 66' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | 🟨 | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
| 11 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 186.00 | 1282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1550.20 | 1459.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.38 | 19.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 26.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 12.71 | 15.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |