← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Dec 12, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Regensburg win | 31% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Ignjovski · Holstein Kiel |
| 17' | ⚽ | Albion Vrenezi · Regensburg |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg |
| 66' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jan Elvedi · Regensburg |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 1260.00 | 468.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1465.53 | 1519.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.30 | 36.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 27.41 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |