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Regensburg 2–3 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Dec 12, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win40%2.42
Regensburg win31%3.10
Draw28%3.51

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg +0.2553%1.83
Holstein Kiel +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Aleksandar Ignjovski · Holstein Kiel
17'⚽Albion Vrenezi · Regensburg
32'⚽Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel
33'🟨Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg
34'🟨Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel
37'⚽Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel
45'🟨Erik Wekesser · Regensburg
55'🟨Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg
66'⚽Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel
86'🟨Jan Elvedi · Regensburg
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
8Shots9
2On target6
6Corners3
20Fouls9
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.520.67
cards avg (last 5)3.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
Jan-Niklas Beste
· Regensburg
coach days1260.00468.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.22
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.691.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.09
dominance (last 5)0.530.41
elo1465.531519.66
elo momentum (last 5)-14.3036.52
eye test v10.17-0.28
eye trend v1-0.040.20
first sub minute (last 10)63.3061.40
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.80—
league points15.0019.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank8.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)49.4049.20
rest days5.987.77
scorer concentration0.420.38
season ppg1.501.90
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.609.40
skill v1-0.570.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
squad age26.6827.41
state index-0.260.35
sterile dominance v1-0.470.43
threat rate (last 10)0.310.20
threat rate (last 3)0.310.21
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60