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FC St. Pauli 1910 0–1 VfL Osnabruck

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Fri, Nov 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win40%2.45
VfL Osnabruck win32%3.10
Draw28%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck −0.2554%1.81
FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'🟨Bryan Henning · VfL Osnabruck
56'🟨Maurice Trapp · VfL Osnabruck
65'🟨Timo Beermann · VfL Osnabruck
66'🟨Etienne Amenyido · VfL Osnabruck
85'⚽David Blacha · VfL Osnabruck
89'🟨James Lawrence · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots10
4On target4
7Corners3
9Fouls10
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910VfL Osnabruck
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.560.51
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
1.80
coach days149.001153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.702.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.19
dominance (last 5)0.490.57
elo1420.811444.68
elo momentum (last 5)-24.5710.32
eye test v10.240.41
eye trend v1-0.54-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)59.6048.60
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.550.67
league points7.0013.00
league rank17.005.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet14.005.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)49.0049.00
rest days6.233.92
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg0.881.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.203.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.2014.40
skill v1-0.22-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.20
squad age26.4826.91
state index-0.75-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.52-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.290.30
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40