← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Nov 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 39% | 2.52 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lars Lukas Mai · Darmstadt |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 70' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tim Skarke · Darmstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 479.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1466.08 | 1510.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.97 | -10.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 15.02 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.50 | 26.49 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |