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Darmstadt 0–4 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win43%2.25
SC Paderborn 07 win30%3.25
Draw27%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 −0.2550%1.95
Darmstadt −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.52
Under36%2.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Darmstadt
8'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt
13'⚽Ron Schallenberg · SC Paderborn 07
22'⚽Chris Führich · SC Paderborn 07
25'⚽Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07
27'🟨Lars Lukas Mai · Darmstadt
34'🟨Adrian Stanilewicz · Darmstadt
35'🟨Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07
40'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Darmstadt
40'🟥Nicolai Rapp · Darmstadt
61'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
4Shots25
2On target13
1Corners8
11Fouls13
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.690.60
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
Dennis Srbeny
· SC Paderborn 07
76'🟨Ron Schallenberg · SC Paderborn 07
90'🟨Frederic Ananou · SC Paderborn 07
2.00
coach days130.001317.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.200.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.402.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.520.48
elo1533.611502.72
elo momentum (last 5)9.8515.67
eye test v10.72-0.16
eye trend v1-0.100.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.8057.50
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.670.63
league points9.008.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8076.00
possession avg (last 5)59.6052.80
rest days7.008.02
scorer concentration0.300.33
season ppg1.501.33
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.0010.80
skill v10.930.11
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.00
squad age26.1326.13
state index0.250.02
sterile dominance v10.550.29
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40