← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Fri, Oct 23, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 37% | 2.64 |
| Karlsruhe win | 35% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Karlsruhe +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Felix Lohkemper · Nurnberg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dominik Kother · Karlsruhe |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dominik Kother · Karlsruhe |
| 75' | 🟥 | Dominik Kother · Karlsruhe |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marius Gersbeck · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 114.00 | 265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.55 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1449.25 | 1404.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.78 | 9.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.97 | 26.47 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |