← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Oct 18, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 53% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.27 |
| FC Wurzburger Kickers win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Wurzburger Kickers +0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.49 |
| Under | 36% | 2.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Mitja Lotrič · FC Wurzburger Kickers |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jannik Dehm · Holstein Kiel |
| 22' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | 🟨 | Joshua Mees · Holstein Kiel |
| 37' | 🟨 | Lars Dietz · FC Wurzburger Kickers |
| 41' | 🟨 | Douglas · FC Wurzburger Kickers |
| 56' | 🟨 | Vladimir Nikolov · FC Wurzburger Kickers |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Holstein Kiel |
| 75' | ⚽ (og) | Lars Dietz · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | 🟨 | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Wurzburger Kickers | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | flyeralarm-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 47.00 | 413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.44 |
| elo | 1392.50 | 1489.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.26 | 0.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 26.20 |
| state index | -1.89 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |