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Karlsruhe 3–0 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Oct 17, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win38%2.61
SV Sandhausen win33%3.03
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe +054%1.81
SV Sandhausen +046%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe
26'🟨Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe
30'⚽Dominik Kother · Karlsruhe
37'🟨Robin Bormuth · Karlsruhe
39'🟨Aleksandr Zhirov · SV Sandhausen
41'🟨Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe
46'⚽Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe
57'🟨Robin Scheu · SV Sandhausen
60'🟨Dennis Diekmeier · SV Sandhausen
89'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
20Shots10
10On target5
6Corners6
16Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.680.74
cards avg (last 5)2.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWildparkstadion
coach days259.00747.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.20
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.809.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.07
dominance (last 5)0.600.36
elo1385.691480.73
elo momentum (last 5)-4.9821.45
eye test v10.13-0.53
eye trend v10.06-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)59.4057.20
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.65
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.640.74
league points0.006.00
league rank18.004.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4063.00
possession avg (last 5)46.8037.00
rest days14.0014.77
season ppg0.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-8.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.409.20
skill v1-0.73-2.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
squad age25.9528.36
state index-0.470.15
sterile dominance v1-0.82-1.62
threat rate (last 10)0.260.33
threat rate (last 3)0.290.26
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80