← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Oct 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 37% | 2.65 |
| Regensburg win | 34% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Regensburg +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Marco Thiede · Karlsruhe |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe |
| 37' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Karlsruhe |
| 40' | 🟨 | Albion Vrenezi · Regensburg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Robin Bormuth · Karlsruhe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 81' | 🟥 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 1190.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1453.75 | 1392.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.27 | -5.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 26.42 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |