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VfL Osnabruck 2–1 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Fri, Sep 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win48%2.00
Draw26%3.79
VfL Osnabruck win25%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck +0.551%1.91
Hannover +0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽ (pen)Christian Santos · VfL Osnabruck
39'🟨Linton Maina · Hannover
45'🟨Dominik Kaiser · Hannover
47'⚽Christian Santos · VfL Osnabruck
58'🟨Marcel Franke · Hannover
61'🟨Sebastian Kerk · VfL Osnabruck
64'🟨Ken Reichel · VfL Osnabruck
77'🟨Marvin Ducksch · Hannover
90'🟨Timo Hübers · Hannover
90'⚽Marvin Ducksch · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots10
5On target3
5Corners4
13Fouls20
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVfL OsnabruckHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.670.70
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBremer Brücke
coach days1090.00329.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.751.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.510.55
elo1418.801539.56
elo momentum (last 5)15.2012.94
eye test v10.410.56
eye trend v10.46-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)52.4053.30
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.181.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.560.76
matches since blank4.0012.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)44.2053.60
rest days5.216.23
season ppg1.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.8013.20
skill v1-0.400.36
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.60
squad age28.2828.54
state index-0.170.44
sterile dominance v1-0.830.21
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.340.25
threat rate (last 5)0.310.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20