← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Fri, Sep 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 46% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 |
| Regensburg win | 27% | 3.64 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Regensburg +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Tim Handwerker · Nurnberg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nikola Dovedan · Nurnberg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 1175.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1451.95 | 1446.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.60 | 10.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.57 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 25.62 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |