← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Fri, Sep 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 30% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.65 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 79' | 🟨 | Amadou Onana · Hamburger SV |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nana Ampomah · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nana Ampomah · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nana Ampomah · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 79.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1519.32 | 1600.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.39 | -11.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 27.87 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.50 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |