← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, May 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Almeria win | 63% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.40 |
| Albacete win | 13% | 8.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Albacete −1.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Almeria −1.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.93 |
| Over | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos |