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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1–1 Leganes

← Segunda División 2020 · Mon, May 10, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Trujillo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win37%2.77
Draw34%2.90
Leganes win29%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +054%1.81
Leganes +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Miguel de la Fuente · Leganes
26'🟨Alejandro Catena · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
28'🟨Sergi Palencia · Leganes
45'🟨Javier Eraso · Leganes
53'🟨Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
58'⚽ (pen)Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
73'🟨Javier Avilés · Leganes
80'🟨Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots6
5On target3
6Corners5
18Fouls26
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.600.61
cards avg (last 5)3.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
3.20
coach days282.00129.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.603.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.55
elo1514.951582.10
elo momentum (last 5)-30.40-10.21
eye test v10.00-0.34
eye trend v1-0.110.20
first sub minute (last 10)61.4052.00
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.740.81
league points58.0064.00
league rank8.004.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0079.60
possession avg (last 5)52.6053.80
rest days7.048.03
scorer concentration0.160.18
season ppg1.491.64
shot diff avg (last 5)1.801.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6011.00
skill v10.300.53
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
squad age27.6227.76
state index-0.460.03
sterile dominance v10.270.62
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40