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Leganes 1–1 Ponferradina

← Segunda División 2020 · Mon, Apr 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win54%1.78
Draw29%3.43
Ponferradina win17%5.93

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ponferradina −0.7552%1.90
Leganes −0.7548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Rodrigo Tarin · Leganes
32'⚽Sergio González · Leganes
33'🟨Yuri · Ponferradina
36'🟨José Manuel Arnáiz · Leganes
47'🟨Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes
64'🟨Kaxe · Ponferradina
73'🟨Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes
73'🟥Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes
75'⚽Oscar Sielva · Ponferradina
78'🟨José Amo · Ponferradina
90'🟨Sergio González

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots7
4On target3
8Corners3
20Fouls12
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesPonferradina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)2.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Butarque
· Leganes
coach days108.001053.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.621.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.440.45
elo1585.731470.91
elo momentum (last 5)-33.15-3.00
eye test v1-0.40-0.47
eye trend v10.10-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)49.9059.10
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.790.73
league points58.0050.00
league rank4.0011.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)52.2051.00
rest days7.929.21
scorer concentration0.190.19
season ppg1.661.39
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8010.40
skill v1-0.09-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)7.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.00
squad age29.1427.43
state index-0.17-0.50
sterile dominance v10.120.03
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.16
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60