← Segunda División 2020 · Sun, Apr 4, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: David Gálvez
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 35% | 2.77 |
| Lugo win | 34% | 2.89 |
| Málaga CF win | 32% | 3.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Málaga CF +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 1.40 |
| Over | 32% | 3.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Juande Rivas · Málaga CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gerard Valentín · Lugo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Frederico Venâncio · Lugo |
| 84' | ⚽ | David Lombán · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Rama · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Escassi · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 3.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1424.61 | 1468.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.15 | 0.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 37.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 4.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 25.69 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |