← Segunda División 2020 · Sun, Mar 21, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 44% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Castellon win | 24% | 4.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Castellon −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 1.42 |
| Over | 32% | 3.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Marcelo Djaló · Lugo |
| 12' | 🟨 | Carlos Delgado · Castellon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rafa Gálvez · Castellon |
| 49' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Lugo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luis Ruiz · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gerard Valentín · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 293.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1456.13 | 1413.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.27 | 21.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 36.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 29.26 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |