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Fuenlabrada 1–2 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Iñaki Bikandi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada win44%2.25
Draw32%3.04
Las Palmas win24%4.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada −0.2555%1.78
Las Palmas −0.2545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.51
Over37%2.68

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Borja Garcés · Fuenlabrada
9'🟨Cristian Rivera · Las Palmas
32'🟨Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Fuenlabrada
35'⚽Pejiño · Las Palmas
66'🟨Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Fuenlabrada
66'🟥Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Fuenlabrada
71'⚽Pejiño · Las Palmas
79'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
86'🟨Aldair Fuentes · Fuenlabrada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots11
4On target4
6Corners1
18Fouls19
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFuenlabradaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.630.56
cards avg (last 5)4.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Fernando Torres
coach days40.00743.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.292.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.19
dominance (last 5)0.670.52
elo1492.341462.62
elo momentum (last 5)7.44-34.59
eye test v10.71-0.24
eye trend v10.090.48
first sub minute (last 10)54.5050.10
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.600.76
league points36.0039.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)43.6053.60
rest days4.796.91
scorer concentration0.180.21
season ppg1.241.34
shot diff avg (last 5)9.200.80
shots for avg (last 5)17.0010.20
skill v1-1.370.25
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.80
squad age25.1126.06
state index0.02-0.73
sterile dominance v1-1.880.67
threat rate (last 10)0.280.16
threat rate (last 3)0.290.20
threat rate (last 5)0.390.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60