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RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 1–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2020 · Fri, Mar 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Trujillo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win55%1.81
Draw29%3.40
Oviedo win17%5.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −0.554%1.80
Oviedo −0.546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Óscar Melendo · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
38'🟥Dídac Vila · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
46'🟨Raúl de Tomás · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
53'🟨Lucas Ahijado · Oviedo
67'⚽Matías Nahuel · Oviedo
78'🟨Marco Sangalli · Oviedo
83'🟨Simone Grippo · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots11
3On target3
5Corners1
15Fouls19
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRCD Espanyol de BarcelonaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.57
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.610.58
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRCDE Stadium
2.80
coach days460.00398.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.431.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.14
dominance (last 5)0.530.47
elo1629.291498.94
elo momentum (last 5)11.14-9.97
eye test v1-0.47-0.44
eye trend v1-0.070.50
first sub minute (last 10)61.5064.20
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.700.66
league points57.0038.00
league rank2.0011.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4074.00
possession avg (last 5)50.8055.20
rest days5.215.00
scorer concentration0.340.19
season ppg1.971.36
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.807.80
skill v10.400.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
squad age24.2826.79
state index0.43-0.27
sterile dominance v10.480.93
threat rate (last 10)0.260.18
threat rate (last 3)0.230.15
threat rate (last 5)0.210.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60