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Fuenlabrada 1–1 Girona

← Segunda División 2020 · Sun, Feb 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: José López

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada win37%2.66
Draw33%2.88
Girona win30%3.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada +055%1.76
Girona +045%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.50
Over36%2.74

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Franchu · Fuenlabrada
-5'🟨Pol Freixanet · Fuenlabrada
9'⚽ (pen)Christian Stuani · Girona
12'🟨Randy Nteka · Fuenlabrada
12'🟨Gerard Gumbau · Girona
16'🟨Aboubakary Kanté · Fuenlabrada
37'🟨Cristóbal Márquez · Fuenlabrada
52'🟨Mamadou Sylla · Girona
62'🟨Bernardo Espinosa · Girona
65'🟨Christian Stuani · Girona
70'⚽Randy Nteka · Fuenlabrada
80'🟨Adrián Diéguez · Fuenlabrada
89'🟨Aldair Fuentes · Fuenlabrada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots5
4On target2
12Corners1
14Fouls23
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFuenlabradaGirona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.490.62
cards avg (last 5)3.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Fernando Torres
coach days27.00272.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.691.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.16
dominance (last 5)0.580.45
elo1492.951509.53
elo momentum (last 5)6.76-0.92
eye test v10.13-0.62
eye trend v10.98-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)57.9059.10
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.610.82
league points34.0037.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.2071.40
possession avg (last 5)44.0047.60
rest days5.796.82
scorer concentration0.140.25
season ppg1.261.37
shot diff avg (last 5)5.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.6010.00
skill v1-1.47-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.20
squad age25.9826.31
state index0.02-0.21
sterile dominance v1-1.51-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.450.19
threat rate (last 5)0.340.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00