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Mallorca 1–2 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

← Segunda División 2020 · Sun, Feb 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win36%2.88
Draw33%2.93
Mallorca win31%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca +0.2555%1.76
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0.2545%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Mallorca
33'⚽Javi Puado · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
52'⚽Amath Ndiaye · Mallorca
73'⚽Landry Dimata · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
80'🟨Brian Oliván · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots6
3On target3
7Corners5
19Fouls13
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaRCD Espanyol de Barcelona
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.540.63
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
2.60
coach days197.00441.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.204.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.202.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.007.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.083.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.61
elo1640.541615.86
elo momentum (last 5)10.76-37.40
eye test v10.13-0.13
eye trend v1-0.08-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)49.7059.50
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.640.69
league points52.0049.00
league rank1.002.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8080.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2055.80
rest days8.715.71
scorer concentration0.210.35
season ppg2.081.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.205.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.2013.60
skill v1-0.430.71
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
squad age24.6025.05
state index0.59-0.00
sterile dominance v10.150.44
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40