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Las Palmas 2–1 Leganes

← Segunda División 2020 · Sun, Jan 24, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win38%2.58
Draw34%2.80
Las Palmas win28%3.54

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas +0.2554%1.80
Leganes +0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under71%1.38
Over29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas
45'🟥Javier Hernández · Leganes
49'🟨Gaku Shibasaki · Leganes
51'🟨Sabin Merino · Leganes
63'⚽Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Las Palmas
70'⚽Rubén Pardo · Leganes
71'🟨Rubén Pardo · Leganes
84'🟨Unai Bustinza · Leganes
86'⚽ (pen)Ariday · Las Palmas
87'🟨Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
89'🟨Unai Bustinza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots14
5On target5
7Corners4
16Fouls20
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.480.56
cards avg (last 5)3.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
· Leganes
89'🟥Unai Bustinza · Leganes
90'🟨Robert Ibáñez · Leganes
coach days695.0023.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.602.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.321.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.04
dominance (last 5)0.370.59
elo1500.001599.12
elo momentum (last 5)16.57-16.30
eye test v1-1.37-0.81
eye trend v10.23-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.4060.60
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.800.78
league points32.0035.00
league rank10.007.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0075.00
possession avg (last 5)53.2049.00
rest days14.1922.27
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.451.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.403.20
shots for avg (last 5)6.0011.60
skill v10.05-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.402.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.802.60
squad age26.6929.28
state index0.150.07
sterile dominance v11.12-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.150.20
threat rate (last 3)0.110.23
threat rate (last 5)0.110.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80