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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–0 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2020 · Sun, Dec 20, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win55%1.74
Draw28%3.45
Las Palmas win17%6.06

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.7551%1.93
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
36'🟨Benito Ramírez · Las Palmas
40'🟨Óscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
50'🟨Eduardo Espiau · Las Palmas
58'⚽Antoñin · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
82'🟨Kirian Rodríguez · Las Palmas
85'🟨Bebé · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
87'⚽Bebé · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots4
7On target2
3Corners2
16Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.710.40
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Vallecas
1.60
coach days141.00660.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.632.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.14
dominance (last 5)0.600.51
elo1544.741481.25
elo momentum (last 5)5.6119.46
eye test v1-0.07-0.98
eye trend v10.16-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.9056.10
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.650.78
league points29.0026.00
league rank9.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)58.6056.40
rest days5.977.00
scorer concentration0.270.22
season ppg1.531.37
shot diff avg (last 5)4.600.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.609.20
skill v10.690.20
sot against avg (last 5)1.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.671.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.60
squad age25.2725.14
state index0.33-0.19
sterile dominance v10.700.89
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.270.12
threat rate (last 5)0.220.16
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80