← Segunda División 2020 · Fri, Dec 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oviedo win | 37% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.81 |
| Tenerife win | 29% | 3.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Tenerife −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Oviedo −0.25 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 69% | 1.40 |
| Over | 31% | 3.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere |