⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Lugo 1–0 Ponferradina

← Segunda División 2020 · Fri, Dec 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocón

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win36%2.77
Draw34%2.82
Ponferradina win30%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo +053%1.82
Ponferradina +047%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Kaxe · Ponferradina
41'🟨José Antonio Ríos · Ponferradina
43'🟥Curro · Ponferradina
56'🟨Pablo Larrea · Ponferradina
81'⚽Hugo Rama · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots5
1On target2
8Corners3
13Fouls8
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoPonferradina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.690.60
cards avg (last 5)3.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Anxo Carro
coach days193.00924.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.24
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)1.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.82
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.330.48
elo1473.871453.67
elo momentum (last 5)-7.3539.68
eye test v1-1.45-0.65
eye trend v1-0.020.44
first sub minute (last 10)53.6052.10
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.74—
league points23.0027.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.6069.60
possession avg (last 5)37.2041.60
rest days6.036.13
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.351.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.20-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)5.808.40
skill v1-2.10-1.24
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.60
squad age27.0327.03
state index-0.500.05
sterile dominance v1-0.61-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.28
threat rate (last 5)0.160.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40