← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, Oct 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 43% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.91 |
| Lugo win | 24% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Lugo −0.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.50 |
| Over | 35% | 2.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Adrián Lapeña · Castellon |
| 8' | 🟨 | Diego Alende · Lugo |
| 67' | 🟨 | Iriome Gonzalez · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafa Gálvez · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iriome Gonzalez · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Nou Estadi Castalia |
| coach days | 443.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1420.17 | 1422.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.02 | -28.71 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.17 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 29.52 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |