← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, Oct 3, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oviedo win | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.88 |
| Albacete win | 30% | 3.42 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oviedo +0 | 56% | 1.75 |
| Albacete +0 | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over | 34% | 2.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Carlos Belmonte |