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Castellon 0–1 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, Sep 19, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon win40%2.49
Draw34%2.90
Málaga CF win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.2553%1.83
Castellon −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.43
Over33%2.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Ramón Enríquez · Málaga CF
39'🟨Mohamed Benkhemassa · Málaga CF
43'🟨Matos · Málaga CF
54'🟨Josep Señé · Castellon
54'🟨Alberto Escassi · Málaga CF
64'🟨Adrián Lapeña · Castellon
73'🟨Ivan Calero · Málaga CF
75'🟨Joseba Muguruza · Castellon
79'🟨Cayetano Quintana · Málaga CF
83'🟨Juande Rivas · Málaga CF
85'🟨Dani Barrio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots7
1On target2
3Corners3
15Fouls18
3Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCastellonMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)—0.61
cards avg (last 5)0.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNou Estadi Castalia
· Málaga CF
coach days415.00262.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)—0.14
corner diff avg (last 5)—2.20
corners against avg (last 5)—2.00
corners for avg (last 5)—4.20
corners volatility (last 10)—2.50
defensive leak (last 5)—0.08
dominance (last 5)—0.50
elo1397.851500.88
elo momentum (last 5)-21.26-16.26
eye test v1—-0.72
eye trend v1—-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)—54.70
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v1—0.61
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)—72.00
possession avg (last 5)—46.80
rest days7.095.89
season ppg3.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—0.60
shots for avg (last 5)—8.40
skill v1—-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)—2.20
sot for avg (last 10)—3.70
sot for avg (last 3)—2.67
sot for avg (last 5)—3.00
squad age28.3325.59
state index-0.66-0.31
sterile dominance v1—-0.00
threat rate (last 10)—0.20
threat rate (last 3)—0.16
threat rate (last 5)—0.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40