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Cremonese 3–0 Pescara

← Serie B 2020 · Fri, May 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Meraviglia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win54%1.80
Draw26%3.90
Pescara win20%5.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara −0.7551%1.93
Cremonese −0.7549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽ (pen)Daniel Ciofani · Cremonese
30'🟨Massimiliano Busellato · Pescara
53'🟨Gennaro Scognamiglio · Pescara
59'🟨Jaime Báez · Cremonese
63'⚽Filippo Nardi · Cremonese
68'🟨Luca Valzania · Cremonese
72'⚽Luca Valzania · Cremonese
73'🟨Samuel Gustafson · Cremonese
73'🟨Stephane Omeonga · Pescara
88'🟨Emanuele Valeri · Cremonese

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
25Shots14
8On target5
9Corners5
11Fouls12
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCremonesePescara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)2.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giovanni Zini
coach days126.00157.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.06
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.762.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.620.53
elo1454.371348.47
elo momentum (last 5)4.115.57
eye test v10.300.62
eye trend v1-0.160.38
first sub minute (last 10)47.6047.60
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.820.74
league points45.0032.00
league rank16.0020.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8080.00
possession avg (last 5)48.4047.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.210.15
season ppg1.180.84
shot diff avg (last 5)6.201.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.4014.00
skill v1-0.080.12
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.40
squad age26.0027.09
state index-0.13-0.54
sterile dominance v1-0.87-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.320.28
threat rate (last 3)0.330.28
threat rate (last 5)0.350.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40