← Serie B 2020 · Fri, May 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli win | 39% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.19 |
| Cittadella win | 29% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Cittadella −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Domenico Frare · Cittadella |
| 21' | 🟨 | Romano Perticone · Cittadella |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marcel Büchel · Ascoli |
| 45' | ⚽ | Riad Bajić · Ascoli |
| 46' | 🟨 | Marco Rosafio · Cittadella |
| 62' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Ascoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Federico Dionisi · Ascoli |
| 82' | 🟨 | Agostino Camigliano · Cittadella |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ascoli | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |
| coach days | 157.00 | 2137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1433.09 | 1509.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.48 | 32.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| league points | 44.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 27.58 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |