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Pisa 2–2 Venezia FC

← Serie B 2020 · Tue, May 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Amabile

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win37%2.60
Draw32%3.12
Pisa win31%3.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC +054%1.79
Pisa +046%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa
37'⚽ (pen)Michele Marconi · Pisa
42'⚽Davide Marsura · Pisa
51'🟨Alessandro De Vitis · Pisa
61'🟨Domen Črnigoj · Venezia FC
72'🟨Giuseppe Sibilli · Pisa
77'⚽Youssef Maleh · Venezia FC
86'🟨Luca Mazzitelli · Pisa
90'🟨Andrea Meroni · Pisa
90'🟥Robert Gucher · Pisa
90'🟨Gabriele Ferrarini · Venezia FC
90'⚽ (pen)Francesco Forte · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
21Shots16
7On target5
3Corners7
19Fouls16
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaVenezia FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.580.64
cards avg (last 5)3.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days1068.00276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.163.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.610.61
elo1442.221510.53
elo momentum (last 5)-18.52-5.85
eye test v1-0.050.13
eye trend v10.33-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)60.9059.90
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
keeper form v10.620.79
league points46.0060.00
league rank12.005.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4081.60
possession avg (last 5)57.4052.20
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.210.28
season ppg1.241.62
shot diff avg (last 5)5.603.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.4012.00
skill v10.470.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
squad age27.0727.46
state index-0.300.12
sterile dominance v10.180.43
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20