⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

US Lecce 1–3 Cittadella

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, May 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Serra

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce win53%1.83
Draw27%3.75
Cittadella win21%4.97

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce −0.553%1.83
Cittadella −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Christian D'Urso · Cittadella
18'⚽Christian D'Urso · Cittadella
20'🟨Manuel Iori · Cittadella
27'⚽Massimo Coda · US Lecce
30'🟨Zan Majer · US Lecce
48'⚽Marco Rosafio · Cittadella
52'🟨Agostino Camigliano · Cittadella
90'🟨Nicola Pavan · Cittadella
90'⚽Federico Proia · Cittadella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots12
6On target7
11Corners6
11Fouls13
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS LecceCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.480.59
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Via del Mare
coach days273.002131.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.871.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.53
elo1608.301483.63
elo momentum (last 5)14.69-12.89
eye test v10.44-0.59
eye trend v1-0.33-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.1059.80
form points (last 5)12.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.680.83
league points67.0053.00
league rank2.007.00
matches since blank9.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4070.80
possession avg (last 5)52.8055.00
rest days14.0013.92
scorer concentration0.310.20
season ppg1.861.47
shot diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0012.00
skill v10.26-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
squad age28.2527.73
state index0.58-0.23
sterile dominance v10.090.23
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40